Compound Wildfire Hazards

Mentee(s):

Mentee

Mentoring Team:

Alexandra Paige Fischer

Jennifer Seamans

Gretchen Keppel-Aleks

Sue-Anne Bell

Heidi Huber-Stearns

Matt Hamilton

Combining Geospatial, Cognitive, and Health Data for Decision-Making to Protect Vulnerable Groups from Compound Wildfire Hazards

Scholarly & Practical Outputs Upcoming

Purpose

When “wildfire hazards” occur concurrently, as they have recently in the US West and around the world, their synergistic effects have devastating impacts on human health and well-being. Assistance providers struggle to make decisions about protecting vulnerable groups from compound wildfire hazards (CWHs) because they lack knowledge about where vulnerable groups are most exposed and which protective actions are suitable based on vulnerable groups’ diverse needs and capacities. These decisions are further complicated by trade-offs between protection actions, as when staying inside to reduce smoke exposure increases the chance of heat stress for those who lack air conditioners or electricity to run them. The goal of this project is to improve the capacity of assistance providers to proactively protect vulnerable populations from compound wildfire hazards by co-developing an innovative geospatial decision-making framework with two partner organizations.

We plan to focus on rural counties, i.e., “micropolitan” counties, which have one urban cluster of between 10,000 and 50,000 people, and “non-core” counties, which do not have an urban cluster of at least 10,000.

Approach

Our geographic focus is the US Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, and Northern California, or “PNW”). This region has experienced several severe wildfire seasons accompanied by multiple extreme heat and smoke events. Moreover, this region could experience more smoke, at least in the near term, as prescribed fire becomes more central to wildfire risk management and forest restoration strategies.

Using results from Obj. 1 & Obj. 2, we will collaborate with our partners to create and pilot a set of proof-of-concept decision trees to help assistance providers protect vulnerable groups under different CWH scenarios. Then, we will refine the decision trees and scenarios to create a prototype decision-making framework.

Objective 1

Quantify where, when, and how frequently CWHs occur in the Pacific Northwest, leveraging NASA satellite remote sensing and other geospatial Earth observation data to determine the exposure of vulnerable groups

Objective 2

Quantify where, when, and how frequently CWHs occur in the Pacific Northwest, leveraging NASA satellite remote sensing and other geospatial Earth observation data to determine the exposure of vulnerable groups

Objective 3

Using results from Obj. 1 & Obj. 2, we will collaborate with our partners to create and pilot a set of proof-of-concept decision trees to help assistance providers protect vulnerable groups under different CWH scenarios. Then, we will refine the decision trees and scenarios to create a prototype decision-making framework.

Expected Outputs

We will develop a set of proof-of-concept decision trees that integrate geospatial scenarios of CWHs to facilitate consideration of protective action strategies while considering vulnerable groups’ assets and capacities. We will test the decision trees in focus groups with assistance providers and then refine them based on the assistance providers’ feedback to create a prototype decision-making framework. Our decision-making framework could improve the outcomes of OHA’s programming by informing decisions about where to prioritize assistance and how to coordinate it with assistance efforts around wildfire preparedness and evacuation.

To increase the possibility of these impacts, we will share our decision-making framework with assistance providers in the PNW and other regions through a manual, applied and scholarly research articles, and presentations at applied wildfire, natural hazard, and public health conferences and workshops.

Example of a potential "proof-of-concept" decision tree

Anticipated Impacts

To Partners

Our geospatial assessments of vulnerable groups’ exposure to CWHs and the expected decision making framework will help our partners make better decisions about where to target their programs and which protective actions to promote for different groups.

To Assistance Providers

The decision-making framework will facilitate the efforts of local assistance providers to directly protect vulnerable groups and encourage and empower members of these groups to protect themselves from CWHs. Eventually, the decision-making framework could be adapted to help assistance providers in other wildfire-prone regions of the US and the world.

To the Global Community

Our project constitutes a new approach to addressing the wildfire crisis because it expands the notion to include CWHs and offers a decision-making framework to protect vulnerable groups from CWHs. Our decision-making framework will also help shift from reactive to proactive planning for wildfire, support collaboration to improve partner involvement at multiple scales, and modernize tools for informed decision-making.

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