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Mentees:
Mahmood Muttaqee
Riva Denny
Mentors:
Paige Fischer
Jeff Kline
Partner Organizations:
Adaptation to Wildfire on Family Forestlands and Implications for Future Pacific Northwest Forests
Purpose
Purpose
As wildfires increase under climate change, family forest owners may need to adjust their management practices to reduce risk (i.e., adapt). This change in management behavior may, in turn, affect forest ecosystem dynamics. Adaptation and wildfire management fields could benefit from improved understanding of behavioral adaptation and its relationship with wildfire risk.
Approach
Approach
Research Questions and Objectives
How do family forest owners in Oregon and Washington perceive changing wildfire risk, including trends in hazard fuel conditions and frequency and severity of wildfire events?
How do they manage their lands in response to this changing risk?
What psychosocial factors influence their perceptions and responses?
How may their management responses shape future forest ecosystem dynamics?
Methodology
Our approach involves collection and analysis of survey data about family forest owners’ perceptions and behavior and geospatial data about wildfire risk, and simulations of future forest conditions. We contacted a random sample of 5,000 individual and family forest owners in Western
Oregon and Washington in the spring of 2022. We received 1000 total responses. We then performed linear and negative binomial regressions to understand how wildfire experiences shape risk perceptions and response.
Muttaqee, M., Fischer, A.P., Kline, J. (2023)
Muttaqee, M., Fischer, A.P., Kline, J. (2023)
Muttaqee, M., Fischer, A.P., Kline, J. (2023)
Preliminary Findings
Preliminary Findings
Post Exposure wake-up call: A near miss experience was found to heighten risk perception.
Post Exposure let-down: Property damage and direct experiences show no significant link with risk perception.
Any vs no experience: Any Experience higher Risk Perception compared to No Experience.
Risk perception- Forest Management: Higher risk perception related to greater forest management practices.
Recommendations for Practice
Recommendations for Practice
Findings can inform policies to help people reduce their wildfire risks.
Policies of protective forest management for owners with no wildfire experiences and who had direct exposure.
Develop nuanced communication strategies and support programs for FFOs that that accommodates the complexity in the link between experiences, risk perceptions and response.
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